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Product details

File Size: 4810 KB

Print Length: 185 pages

Publisher: OUP Oxford; 1st edition (May 26, 2011)

Publication Date: May 26, 2011

Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC

Language: English

ASIN: B005YMCC78

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This is not about data and specific advice regarding the risks that you as an individual face in everyday life (for which see How Risky Is It, Really?: Why Our Fears Don't Always Match the Facts or The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger). Instead it is a masterful overview of how many disciplines inside academia, and professions outside academia, think about Risk nowadays. Of books I have read (on any subject), it is one of the most successful at combining abstract high-level concepts with a set of substantial real-world examples. In style it is somewhat like a well-written concise textbook rather than a "popular science" book, so it requires some concentration rather than being easy bedtime reading. In the examples it presents data but does not seek to engage any details of statistical analysis.Regarding content, I cannot do better than compress the author's own summary: thinking about risk in the context of decisions where risk matters; creating measures of risk; understanding probabilities of risks by combining historical records, science and expert judgement; how individuals move from understanding risks to making choices; risk perception and judgmental biases; risk communication; cultural aspects of risk.Rather than plugging one author's view, the book emphasizes the many different aspects of risk and the complexity of real-world decision making. It strikes me as ideal for the reader who already has some familiarity with some aspect of the study of risk, but who is puzzled why other people view risk differently. Because many ideas are touched upon in a single paragraph (or sentence or phrase) it might be a bit overwhelming for a complete novice, but this is a book one could reread every few years and find something newly insightful.

If you're not familiar with the parameters of risk, Professor Fischhoff and Mr. Kadvany provide a thorough and accessible explanation of the topic. If I tried to summarize the book, I'd say that first you have to determine what you value (what's bad and what's not); next, you must have a way to measure events (how many bad outcomes and good outcomes can one identify); and lastly, you must have some analytical framework to review the events (try to identify the causes of the outcomes and separate causation from correlation or randomness). Principally, one's focus will be on bad outcomes. Statistics are a common tool in this area.The authors look at a wide range of events - various illnesses, premature births, nuclear energy, and many others. These offer concrete examples for the processes for measuring and analyzing risk. The values issue is essential to determine what one measures and the scope of the analysis. As the authors move through the books, the complexity of risk becomes more apparent.Risk perception arises from the values that society or individuals hold. A risk may not be perceived because there is no general agreement on whether a loss occurs from the event. Since values can and do change, the general agreement on whether there is a loss may also change. The book will address circumstances where this has occurred.I had one very small observation about one study during WWII of the German bombing of London. The study purported to show that the German bombs were falling randomly on London and therefore there was no real way to decide how to seek shelter. I do not challenge the finding of the study that the German bombs were falling randomly on London, but I do strongly believe that the bombs were falling on London, and not, say, on Edinburgh. Thus, the fact that the bombs were falling on London was not random. If one wished to avoid the bombs, get out of London. If this minor observation did nothing else, it convinced me that the authors were forcing me to think about risk.I think the authors will cause you to think about risk as well. If the topic interests you, you would do well to read the book.

Oxford doesn't publish books for "dummies" -- they publish "very short introductions". And this one isn't for dummies. It's an informed overview of the elements of understanding risks and making decisions with respect to them.For most of us, risk is something we address in an informal, rule-of-thumb manner. I think this goes for everything from the risks we run in leaving our homes every day (or even staying in them), to how we invest our 401ks, to our willingness or unwillingness to participate in dangerous sports like rock-climbing or ocean swimming, and even to business risks arising in our professional lives. We trust in our own decision-making, often with little information to go on.We certainly pay a price. For example, if we rely on the flow of information we simply happen to receive, we over-estimate our vulnerability to violent crime, natural disasters, traffic accidents, and the like. Our information flow isn't designed as an unbiased source for risk assessment.The authors have made careers of understanding risk. The most interesting point they make, I think, is that "societies reveal themselves by how they handle dangers." How we measure risks, including what it is that we consider risks to be risks to reveal, in action, what we value, what really matters to us. Is it life, simply put? Is it a life of a particular kind? Is it long life? Is it healthy life?"Very short introductions" are not for professionals -- they are for the majority of us who can benefit from an explicit, reflective framework for something we don't really have an informed way of thinking about. Maybe the most valuable thing we can learn is that there are, in fact, informed ways to think about and make decisions with respect to the risks that are ubiquitous in everyday life.

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